In our quest to assess the likelihood of the SDGs being achieved by 2030 we took, as a starting point, the long-term forecast created by one of the original members of the Club of Rome, Jørgen Randers. We then surveyed over a dozen forecasting models. Of these, we found the two most suitable supplementary models were the system dynamics-based “T21” model of Millennium Institute, and the Regional Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (‘RICE’) led by Professor William Nordhaus of Yale University. Our team performed structural sensitivity analyses using these two supplemental models, and drew on the T21 model in particular to assess SDG issues and targets not covered by the Randers model.
We found that none of the Sustainable Development Goals will be achieved in any of the world’s major regions. Furthermore, the ‘scorecard’ reveals that, even in the world’s most developed regions, ‘USA/OECD’ only 6 out of 17 goals will be reached.
The forecast concludes that without extraordinary action, the SDGs will not be met, or indeed satisfactorily advanced in the poorer regions of the world. Although such action needs to be taken by governments, institutions and business, it is to the private sector that we in DNV GL turned for a glimpse into the art of the possible on the SDG frontiers. For each of the 17 SDGs, the company paired a leading global enterprise with operations, markets or products and service of relevance to that individual goal.
17 companies, representing different sectors but with a global footprint have been working together with DNV GL on this project, they are as follows:
- No poverty | Tata
- Zero hunger | Danone
- Good health and well-being | HiTechnologies
- Quality education | ARM
- Gender equality | Symantec
- Clean water and sanitation | Grundfos
- Affordable and clean energy | SolarWorld
- Decent work and economic growth | NYK
- Industry, innovation, and infrastructure | Hydro
- Reduced inequalities | Safaricom
- Sustainable cities and communities | Siemens
- Responsible consumption & production | Marks & Spencer
- Climate action | Iberdrola
- Life below water | Cermaq
- Life on land | APP
- Peace and justice | Calvert Investments
- Partnerships for the goals | Unilever
Read more: Business can rock the world